Identify "what is known" and "what is not known"
Innovation fails when we build complex strategies on fragile foundations. The Assumption Matrix is the Sensemaking tool that precedes action: it serves to clear the mental clutter, distinguishing proven facts from mere hopes.
Before activating any test with the Experiment Card, use this matrix to classify your insights across the three lenses of innovation (Desirability, Feasibility, Viability). This process allows you to visualize your "blind spots" and rationally decide where to invest resources to turn uncertainty into evidence.
Don't build futures on sand. Map your certainties to distinguish what you know from what you still need to validate
How to use the Assumption Matrix
Step 1: Hypothesis Emergence (Brainstorming)
Suspend judgment. Ask the team: "What must be true for our strategy to work?". Write every assumption on a post-it, covering the three critical areas:
- Does the customer want it? (Desirability)
- Can we do it? (Feasibility)
- Is it worth doing? (Viability)
Step 2: Mapping (The Matrix)
Place assumptions on the matrix axes:
- X-Axis (Evidence/Ease): How easy is it to test? How sure are we (do we have data or just opinions)?
- Y-Axis (Impact): How important is it for the project's success?
- X-Axis (Evidence/Ease): How easy is it to test? How sure are we (do we have data or just opinions)?
- Y-Axis (Impact): How important is it for the project's success?
Step 3: Discussion and Sensemaking
Debate the positioning. Often what a manager considers a "Fact" (low risk) is for a technician a "Guess" (high risk). This debate is crucial to align the team's risk perception and expose false confidence.
Step 4: Action Plan (Link to Experiment)
Now look at the top-right quadrant (High Importance / Low Evidence or Hard to test) and top-left (High Importance / Easy to test):
- Important & Easy hypotheses are "Quick Wins": use the Experiment Card immediately to validate or disprove them quickly.
- Important & Hard hypotheses are your long-term strategic risks: they require more structured research plans.
