Identify "what is known" and "what is not known"
Innovation fails when we build complex strategies on fragile foundations. The Assumption Matrix is the Sensemaking tool that precedes action: it serves to clear the mental clutter, distinguishing proven facts from mere hopes.
Before activating any test with the Experiment Card, use this matrix to classify your insights across the three lenses of innovation (Desirability, Feasibility, Viability). This process allows you to visualize your "blind spots" and rationally decide where to invest resources to turn uncertainty into evidence.
Don't build futures on sand. Map your certainties to distinguish what you know from what you still need to validate
How to use the Assumption Matrix
Step 1: Hypothesis Emergence (Brainstorming)
Suspend judgment. Ask the team: "What must be true for our strategy to work?". Write every assumption on a post-it, covering the three critical areas:
- Does the customer want it? (Desirability)
- Can we do it? (Feasibility)
- Is it worth doing? (Viability)
Step 2: Mapping (The Matrix)
Place assumptions on the matrix axes:
- X-Axis (Evidence/Ease): How easy is it to test? How sure are we (do we have data or just opinions)?
- Y-Axis (Impact): How important is it for the project's success?
Step 3: Discussion and Sensemaking
Debate the positioning. Often what a manager considers a "Fact" (low risk) is for a technician a "Guess" (high risk). This debate is crucial to align the team's risk perception and expose false confidence.
Step 4: Action Plan (Link to Experiment)
Now look at the top-right quadrant (High Importance / Low Evidence or Hard to test) and top-left (High Importance / Easy to test):
- Important & Easy hypotheses are "Quick Wins": use the Experiment Card immediately to validate or disprove them quickly.
- Important & Hard hypotheses are your long-term strategic risks: they require more structured research plans.
Frequently asked questions about the Assumption Matrix
What is the Assumption Matrix?
The Assumption Matrix is the sensemaking tool that precedes action: a matrix for separating proven facts from mere hopes — "do you know it, or do you think you know it?". It classifies the team's assumptions by importance and evidence, revealing the "shadow zones" your strategy rests on without proof.
What is the Assumption Matrix used for?
Innovation fails when complex strategies are built on fragile foundations. The matrix visualizes where the critical uncertainties are and helps you decide rationally where to invest resources to turn uncertainty into evidence, before committing to development and investment.
How do you use the Assumption Matrix?
Surface the assumptions by asking "what must be true for our strategy to work?" across the three lenses (desirability, technical feasibility, economic viability); position them on the matrix by evidence/ease of testing and impact; discuss the placement to align the team's risk perception; define the action plan starting from the critical quadrants.
Which assumptions should you test first?
Important and easy-to-test assumptions are your "quick wins": validate them immediately with the Experiment Card. Important but hard-to-test assumptions are your long-term strategic risks, requiring structured research plans. Beware of false certainties: what a manager considers a fact may be a high-risk assumption for an engineer.
Where can I download the Assumption Matrix?
You can download TIPIC's Assumption Matrix for free from this page, in English and Italian, with the evidence/impact axes and guiding questions to map assumptions across the three innovation lenses.
